2016). Forecasting the rangewide status of polar bears at selected times in the 21st century. Although this assessment merely reflected the opinion of PBSG members of what might happen in the future, it was accepted by the IUCN in 2006 as if it were supported by a detailed scientific analysis (Aars et al. Margaret Williams. John Farley. Full documentary here https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RwxVBx1tvDw -Follow us on social media :Facebook : https://www.facebook.com/BestDocumentaryTV In addition, they underplayed the fact that they had simply assumed summer sea ice would continue to decline in a linear fashion: no climate sea ice models were actually utilized. So the report is ruining their end of the … Japan's oldest polar bear "Nana" dying zoo flower stand Sendai 2021-01-26T04:13:48.344Z [NHK] Nana, the oldest polar bear in Japan and a … The Polar Bear Catastrophe That Never Happened. Arctic Climate Impact Assessment: Scientific Report. They remained in that category until 1996, when it became clear that polar bear numbers had recovered substantially. Concerned about the polar bear’s future, the five nations, where the polar bear lives, decided to make an agreement and to restrict polar bear hunting. The beginning of this month was the 15th anniversary of the day the IUCN declared polar bears ‘vulnerable’ to extinction because of climate change, the first time such a designation had ever been made. Other reasons, like pollution, oil, and gas development are also worth mentioning. The book is called The Loneliest Polar Bear: A True Story of Survival and Peril on the Edge of a Warming World, by Kale Williams. As I explained in my book, The Polar Bear Catastrophe That Never Happened, if polar bears really required as much summer ice as IUCN biologists assumed back in 2006, there would be fewer than 10,000 bears remaining – and that simply didn’t happen. ACIA 2005. Polar bear assessment bring good and troubling news In October 2019, the Polar Bear Specialist Group of the International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN) released a new assessment of polar bears. Will low sea ice threaten harp seals & polar bears on Canada’s East Coast this year? 2021. An adult male may reach over three meters (10 feet) when standing on its hind legs. Fat Svalbard polar bears. So does this idea make sense? Testing the hypothesis that routine sea ice coverage of 3-5 mkm2 results in a greater than 30% decline in population size of polar bears (Ursus maritimus). There is no band aid solution. 2019. I have shown that their prediction (that 2/3 of the world’s polar bears would disappear when sea ice dropped by about 40% and stayed there for 10 years – which was not expected to occur until 2050 but instead happened in 2007) failed in rather spectacular fashion (Crockford 2017, 2019; Crockford and Geist 2018). Polar Bears: Proceedings of the 14th Working Meeting of the IUCN/SSC Polar Bear Specialist Group, 20-24 June 2005, Seattle, Washington, USA. PeerJ Preprints 19 January 2017. Scientists predict that most polar bears will die out by the year 2100 because of global warming. Available in paperback and ebook formats. Conservation status of polar bears (Ursus maritimus) in relation to projected sea-ice declines. Stuck in Arctic Ice, Dodging Polar Bears. Recent survey results would put the global average at about 30,000 (Crockford 2021): up a little from 26,000 but not by a significant amount. This is what we have come to: organize days of remembrance that celebrate our culpable helplessness much … To create one, summon a polar bear with a polar bear cub riding on it, and voila: an eternally provoked polar bear jockey! Fish Dating Back 420 Million Years Believed Extinct, But Found Alive, Man dead after shooting outside Colony Apartments, Midlands school employee calling it quits after winning $2 million playing the lottery, SCHP: One passenger dead following a collision on I-26 East, RCSD seeking identification of man wanted for strong arm robbery at the Walmart on Killian Road, Sumter man charged after deputies find him with reportedly stolen metal roofing. One idea is surfacing about relocating Polar Bears to Antarctica (south pole area). Scientists usually refer to how tall bears are by measuring them at the shoulder when on all fours. April 23, 2021 | Jamaican Journalist Michael Sharpe’s Family & Friends Condemn Death Threats – April 22 2021 Search for: Polar bears and narwhals are dying as climate changes and Geist, V. 2018. First, the story of the second oldest polar bear in America dying after outliving his life expectancy by almost a decade. The media's immediate conclusion: global warming. See their graphics package of sea ice projections here. This is a modal window. Biology Letters 12: 20160556. http://rsbl.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/12/12/20160556 Supplementary data here. Date: August 16, 2012. Wandering polar bears are the new starving polar bears, falsely blamed on climate change, Fossil fuel addiction driving polar bears to extinction says WWF-Canada, Polar bears gain ‘vulnerable’ status on world list of endangered species, The Polar Bear Catastrophe That Never Happened, http://rsbl.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/12/12/20160556, http://www.iucnredlist.org/details/22823/0. Once again, the green narrative gets in the way of the truth. Without a shred of irony, on 1 May 2006 the IUCN reported two familiar animals among 530 added to the list of endangered species that year: the polar bear, based on the opinion of scientists, informed by climate models, that their numbers would decline by more than 30% over the next 45 years and the common hippo, based on an actual decline of more than 95% in the Congo. Source: Forschungsverbund Berlin e.V. February 27, 2021 marked World Polar Bear Day. Global Warming Policy Foundation Report 48, London. Red List status for polar bears in 2006 provided employment for biologists and increased donations for conservation charities but nothing for the bears that the international treaty in 1973 hadn’t already done. What we’ve learned over the last 15 years is that polar bears only require sea ice until about mid-May or mid-June (depending on the latitude) and again in the late fall (November) through the winter. https://www.worldwildlife.org/pages/polar-bears-and-climate-change In other words, I don’t see any positive effect on the bears from being listed by the IUCN: they were already well protected by national laws and international treaties put in place before 2006. 2020. Jan 6, 2021 11:30 PM EST. Starving Polar Bear Draws Attention to Climate Change. Polar bears dying in zoo from virus that jumped from zebras. His name was Little One and he was born at the Cleveland Zoo in 1989. Wiig, Ø., Amstrup, S., Atwood, T., Laidre, K., Lunn, N., Obbard, M., et al. As I explain in my new book, The Polar Bear Catastrophe That Never Happened, polar bears were the first species to be classified on the US Endangered Species List and the IUCN Red List (in 2006 and 2008, respectively) based on assumptions of how many bears might die by 2050 if summer sea … Tue 27 Apr 2021 02.00 EDT 6 G enghis Khan got his dying wish: despite attempts by archaeologists and scientists to find the Mongolian ruler’s final … "There is no band aid solution. One reason behind the PBSG decision to uplist polar bears to the ‘Vulnerable’ category was undoubtedly the knowledge that in early 2005, three activist environmental groups (Center for Biological Diversity, Greenpeace, and Natural Resources Defense Council) filed a petition to list polar bears as threatened under the US Endangered Species Act (the ESA). Polar bears could become nearly extinct by the end of the century as a result of shrinking sea ice in the Arctic if global warming continues unabated, scientists said Monday. Now, in 2021, polar bear numbers are the highest they’ve been in 60 years. This was one polar bear dying a gruesome death as happens in the wild all the time. A tragic video shows a dying polar bear. 2. The Polar Bear Specialist Group was created in 1968 as a unit of the International Union for the Conservation of Nature (the IUCN), who had just developed a “Red List” of threatened and endangered species. Later that year, the groups sued the US government for failing to address their concerns within the time frame required under ESA rules. The idea that summer sea ice is essential for polar bear survival was an early assumption made by polar bear specialists that turned out to be wrong. Both were to be listed as ‘vulnerable’ – one based on facts of a catastrophic local decline and the other based on prophesy. Amstrup, S.C., Marcot, B.G. Protection from over-hunting was what the bears needed: most populations are still recovering from the wanton slaughter that started more than a century ago. 2006; Crockford 2017, 2019). on How are polar bears doing 15 years after the IUCN declared them ‘vulnerable’ to extinction? July 20, 2020. (eds.) They did not acknowledge that a 30% decline for most modern population counts would not even be statistically significant (Crockford 2020:15). When scientists say polar bears will be extinct in the next 100 years, I think of the global population of 25,000 bears dying in this manner. That’s because the Arctic (north pole area) is melting. Global polar bear numbers are projected to decline by 30% by 2050. Polar bears were first listed in 1982 as ‘vulnerable’ by the IUCN – a category equivalent to ‘threatened’ in the US. Fake News of Polar Bears Dying From Global Warming Exposed — Again. It was based on the opinion of polar bear specialists who examined the vague information available… IUCN, Gland (Switzerland) and Cambridge (UK). And climate scientists predict that before long, there will be no ice left. Managing Director, WWF’s Arctic Program. Pdf here. , Polar Bears are dying off. The PBSG negotiated the 1973 International treaty to protect polar bears from unregulated hunting, a very real threat they’d been subjected to for decades. Available from http://www.iucnredlist.org/details/22823/0 [accessed Nov. 28, 2015]. Polar bears are flourishing, making them phoney icons, and false idols, for global warming alarmists One powerful polar bear fact is slowly rising above the message of looming catastrophe repeated endlessly by the media: More than 15,000 polar bears have not disappeared since 2005. 2007). Date: 09/12/17. Just in case you may have been … That’s the stunning population loss for polar bears in the southern Beaufort Sea. Crockford, S.J. PBSG members were clearly not happy that polar bears no longer qualified as ‘vulnerable’ (this is apparent in their meeting reports) so in 2005, they recommended to the IUCN that polar bears be uplisted back to ‘Vulnerable’ on the basis of population declines expected to follow from modeled sea ice loss due to expectations of global warming (see below, from the ACIA 2005 report). You must have watched many polar bear programs on the National Geographic Channel and Animal Planet. It was based on the opinion of polar bear specialists who examined the vague information available at the time and decided that in 45 years the bears might be in serious trouble. I f sea ice loss due to man-made global warming had been the culprit, this bear would not have been the only one starving: the landscape would have been littered with carcasses. However, a plausible argument can be made that this number is likely to be much higher – possibly as high as 58,000 (Crockford 2017, 2019, 2020:3). Global Warming Policy Foundation Report 39, London. Due to the population rebound, polar bear status changed to ‘lower risk’ in 1996 (now known as ‘least concern’) and it remained there for 10 years: polar bears had been saved. Forty percent. (FVB) Summary: … Death of prominent Canadian polar bear biologist a tragic loss to science, Earth Day 2021: celebrate abundant sea ice habitat for polar bear feeding and mating, Less than usual ice conditions off Labrador have meant very few polar bear sightings, Harp seal pup production poor in Gulf of St. Lawrence but it won’t impact the population, Polar bear problems onshore in Svalbard before prime feeding season, Choose verifiable facts over emotional narratives on polar bear conservation, Polar bears are an environmental success story: short video from ICSC Canada, Polar bears are thriving: an ICSC Canada short video. Although the extent of the summer sea ice after 2006 dropped […] Crockford, S.J. Sea ice is declining in the Arctic in both thickness and extent Polar bears will be wiped out by the end of the century unless more is done to tackle climate change, a study predicts. The official global population estimate used by the IUCN in 2015 was 22,000-31,000 (or an average of 26,000) and the worst they could predict for the future was that by 2050, there was a 70% chance that the population would decline by 30% or more (Wiig et al. Sorry, your blog cannot share posts by email. Polar bears are found in the far north, inside the Arctic Circle. Occasional Paper of the IUCN Species Survival Commission 32. 2016. Regehr, E.V., Laidre, K.L, Akçakaya, H.R., Amstrup, S.C., Atwood, T.C., Lunn, N.J., Obbard, M., Stern, H., Thiemann, G.W., & Wiig, Ø. A selection of new nonfiction ranges from the plight of polar bears to the revitalization of Miami streets. Could A New Battery be a Game-Changer for Electric Cars? Of those studied populations, polar bears in southern Hudson Bay and Davis Strait in Canada are “very likely” to experience reproductive failure … 2006. Fat Svalbard polar bears. 26-27. This decision changed the way the IUCN assessed species risk and led to mass confusion for the general public, who falsely assumed polar bear numbers had already declined by a huge amount. Death of prominent Canadian polar bear biologist a tragic loss to science; Earth Day 2021: celebrate abundant sea ice habitat for polar bear feeding and mating; Less than usual ice conditions off Labrador have meant very few polar bear sightings; Harp seal pup production poor in Gulf of St. Lawrence but it won’t impact the population Today, the biggest reason why polar bears are dying is starvation caused by climate changes. Crockford, S.J. Video Player is loading. The concern for future polar bear survival was always about predicted low sea ice levels in the future but even after 15 years of moderately low summer sea ice (about 40% less than 1979) we have not yet seen any species-wide effects that can be attributed conclusively to climate change. Polar Bears Really Are Starving Because of Global Warming, Study Shows. State of the Polar Bear Report 2019. "When scientists say polar bears will be extinct in the next 100 years, I think of the global population of 25,000 bears dying in this manner," he wrote. 2017. https://peerj.com/preprints/2737/. Post was not sent - check your email addresses! Susan Crockford, Polar Bear Science. Polar bear attack in Svalbard: victim survives, polar bear does not, More polar bear catastrophe hype: bears use four times more energy than expected. Range Magazine, Winter 2017/2018, pg. Minecraft Polar Bear Behavior. Now that they knew it could be done, in 2007 American biologists at the US Geological Survey (the USGS) used the IUCN “future threats” strategy to support the prediction that polar bears would be threatened with extinction within 3 polar bear generations or 45 years due to predicted sea ice loss (Amstrup et al. https://www.forbes.com/sites/allenelizabeth/2021/01/03/no-polar-bears-do-not-live-in-antarctica-but-could-they/?utm_campaign=forbes&utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_term=Carrie&sh=abcb6125d4dc, To get alerts for breaking news, download the ABC Columbia News App for iPhone or Android. 2015. The IUCN Red List of Threatened Species 2015: e.T22823A14871490. For most, it was a vivid signal of the future in store for us all due to human-caused (anthropogenic) global warming ― … By Paul Homewood The beginning of this month was the 15th anniversary of the day the IUCN declared polar bears ‘vulnerable’ to extinction because of climate change, the first time such a designation had ever been made. Using ‘future threats’ based on climate models to declare a species threatened with extinction had never been done before – by the IUCN or anyone else. Here are some of the stories from that eventful time: Fossil fuel addiction driving polar bears to extinction says WWF-Canada (WWF, 4 May 2006), Polar bears gain ‘vulnerable’ status on world list of endangered species (CBC, 1 May 2006), Polar bears sink deeper into danger (NATURE News, 2 May 2006). http://pbsg.npolar.no/en/meetings/. Doi: 10.7287/peerj.preprints.2737v1 Open access. A video of an emaciated polar bear filmed last August near Baffin Island, Nunavut by Paul Nicklen of SeaLegacy has gone viral across social media, putting a face to the challenges polar bears face in a warming Arctic. The new study finds that the polar bear population has grown so much that they are now competing with the native Inuit peoples living in the area. Researchers in Canada estimated one male bear at 800 kilograms (1,700 pounds)! Conservation Fiasco. New science sheds more light on recent controversy over how much the … by William F. Jasper December 28, 2016. 2015; Regehr et al. Second, a book review. Recent survey results would put the global average at about 30,000 (Crockford 2021): up a little from 26,000 but not by a significant amount. Now, in 2021, polar bear numbers are the highest they’ve been in 60 years. How are polar bears doing 15 years after the IUCN declared them ‘vulnerable’ to extinction? US Geological Survey. See the supplement for population figures. Ursus maritimus. In 2015, the IUCN commissioned another assessment and this time, they not only demanded that a mathematical model be used to predict future declines but that facts rather than opinions be used: a Bayesian model would not be acceptable. All for Science. Recent survey results would put the global average at about 30,000 (Crockford 2021): up a little from 26,000 but not by a significant amount. Watch polar bear habitat reform in the Canadian Arctic: “last 10 days” Canadian Ice Service animation (works anytime). The State of the Polar Bear Report 2020. As long as ice is present at those times the bears will be fine. pdf here. Now, in 2021, polar bear numbers are the highest they’ve been in 60 years. Cambridge University Press. pdf here. A photo of an emaciated polar bear has sparked debate over global warming. Reston, VA. Pdf here, Crockford, S.J. Enter your email address to follow this blog and receive notifications of new posts by email. Xzibit would be proud – and terrified. Those heights are typically 1-1.5 meters (3.3-5 feet) for adult polar bears. That’s because the Arctic (north pole area) is melting. This time they made a model to support their opinions but it was a particular kind of model that could treat opinions as if they were facts (a ‘Bayesian’ model). Crockford, S.J. A polar bear is attacking by nature. A black stone in our calendar to remind us that this magnificent mammal is threatened with extinction. By Melanie Abrams. The climate change crazies continue to claim that the polar bears are dying out. In early December, a video of a dying, emaciated polar bear foraging for food on an iceless land went viral on social media, garnering millions of views on Facebook and YouTube. Even if global warming is slowed, the loss of polar ice means most polar bears will still be seriously affected. Polar Bears are dying off. & Douglas, D.C. 2007. Climate change is unlikely to effect the future of polar bears unless there is much less ice by mid-May, which does not look likely to happen any time soon based on current conditions (see below): Aars, J., Lunn, N. J. and Derocher, A.E. The news comes from a new study linking the dramatic decline in this polar bear subpopulation in northeast Alaska and Canada to a loss of sea ice due to climate change. Polar bear numbers are increasing, not declining, despite a 40% loss of summer sea ice since 1979. Global Warming Policy Foundation, London. Scientists believe there are about 25,000 polar bears left.

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